15 May 2025
UK economy delivers strongest quarterly performance in a year despite forecasts of business downturn
A surprising 0.7% economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 has defied gloomy predictions, but retailers face an imminent "reality check" as April's tax increases begin to bite, according to Bira.
The latest Office for National Statistics figures released today show the UK economy expanding at its fastest pace in twelve months, outperforming City analysts' expectations of 0.6% growth. While this represents welcome positive momentum for Britain's retail sector, March's more modest 0.2% growth signals potentially challenging times ahead.
The unexpected economic resilience comes despite business leaders' earlier warnings that the Chancellor's autumn budget, including £25bn in employer National Insurance increases, would risk plunging the economy into recession.
Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira, said: "Today's growth figures offer a rare moment of economic sunshine, but they don't dispel the storm clouds gathering over our high streets. The full impact of April's National Insurance hikes and persistent business rate burdens hasn't yet materialised in these numbers.
"Independent retailers are naturally pleased to see stronger economic performance, particularly with retail contributing significantly to this growth. However, we're bracing for the delayed impact of recent cost increases that threaten to undermine this progress in the coming months."
Bira also highlighted continued pressure from Chinese e-commerce platforms as an ongoing challenge for British high street retailers attempting to capitalise on the current economic strength.
Bira's advocacy takes your voice to the heart of Parliament
Bira is at the forefront of championing the cause of independent traders and shopkeepers across Britain.
Our campaigns cover a wide spectrum of issues crucial to the success of independent traders including:
- Combatting the rising tide of retail crime
- Advocating for changes in legislation that promote fairness and flexibility
- Fighting for fairer business rates
- Overall reducing the regulatory burden
- £1 billion damages claim against Amazon by UK retailers
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