Decline in retail sales was less steep in March, according to a new report from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC).

Key points from the SRC-KPMG Scottish Retail Sales Monitor for March 2021 are as follows:  

  • In March, Scottish sales decreased by 11.5% on a 2 year like-for-like basis compared with March 2019, when they had decreased by 0.2%. This is above the 3-month average decrease of 20.3% and below the 2019 average decrease of 0.8%.
  • Total sales in Scotland decreased by 13.8% on a 2-year basis compared with March 2019, when they had increased by 0.3%. This was below the 3m average decline of 20.9% and the 2019 average decline of 0.2%.
  • Total Food sales increased 19.7% on a 2-year basis versus March 2019, when they had decreased by 0.2%. March was above the 3-month growth of 12.8% and the 2019 average growth of 2.4%. The 3-month average was above the UK level of 11.6%.
  • Total Non-Food sales decreased by 49.2% in March on a 2-year basis compared to March 2019, when they had increased by 0.7%. This was above the 3-month average decline of 49.2% and the 2019 average decline of 2.4%.
  • Adjusted for the estimated effect of Online sales, Total Non-Food sales decreased by 10.5% in March versus March 2019, when they had increased by 1.3%. This is above the 3-month average decline of 20.0% and below the 2019 average decline of 1.4%. This was lower than the UK’s 3m average decline of 4.7.

Ewan MacDonald-Russell, Head of Policy & External Affairs, Scottish Retail Consortium, said: “The decline in retail sales in March was much less steep compared to recent months, albeit still fell by nearly 14 per cent compared with the truer comparable trading period in 2019. It’s hardly surprising sales were down with most shops shut for the crucial run up to Easter, but there were some encouraging signs that shoppers are preparing to resume shopping when the lockdowns finally end.

“Food sales were very high in March, but that’s in part due to Easter spending falling in the comparable April in 2019. The continued shuttering of eateries last month also flattered the figures. Nonetheless, despite households being unable to meet, it appears consumers continue to splash out on the usual domestic Easter meal, with Easter eggs selling very strongly. Non-food sales continue to be weak, but strong online sales of children’s clothes in response to schools reopening indicate there may be better news ahead when people can leave their homes for non-essential reasons.

“As we move further into the year the two big questions will be whether retail sales bounce back due to pent up demand with the end of lockdown, and where that uplift in retail sales is sustained rather than merely temporary. So far this year the majority of non-food sales have taken place online – if that doesn’t change and people don’t return to the shops it will pose very significant questions for the future of physical retail stores, and in turn for the state of our retail destinations, local communities and tax revenues from business rates. That’s something politicians of all parties will have to grapple with once the current election is over.”

Download the full report here

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